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Monetarismo

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El monetarismo es la rama o vertiente del pensamiento econ=C3=B3mico que se ocupa de los efectos d= el dinero sobre la econom=C3=ADa en ge= neral. A=C3=BAn cuando no constituye una escuela del pensamiento econ=C3= =B3mico como tal[1] sino m=C3=A1s bien una tendencia, ha e= jercido una gran influencia sobre numerosos economistas y, de hecho, hay= una escuela de pensamiento econ=C3=B3mico =E2=80=94la Escuela de Econom=C3=ADa de Chicago=E2=80=94 que generalm= ente es percibida como "monetarista", hasta el punto de que, en el prese= nte, cuando se usa el t=C3=A9rmino =E2=80=9Cmonetaristas=E2=80=9D -gener= almente por los no especialistas- se entiende referido a los monetarista= s influidos por Milton Friedman (o Escuela de Chicago).[2] Entre e= conomistas, el uso es m=C3=A1s complejo.[3]

La situaci=C3=B3n (no necesariamente problem=C3=A1tica) que impide ll= amar al monetarismo una escuela es que hay por lo menos dos interpretaci= ones o modelos econ=C3=B3micos generales de la forma en que la oferta= de dinero afecta a otras variables, tales como los precios, la producci=C3=B3= n y el empleo. Estas d= os aproximaciones se pueden contemplar, por un lado, en la obra de Knut Wicksell, y,= por el otro, en la de Irving Fisher. (ver m=C3=A1s abajo). Adem=C3=A1s el monetaris= mo (o versiones del mismo) est=C3=A1 presente en la obra de autores cons= iderados representantes de otras escuelas. Dado que todos los economista= s tienen por lo menos alguna versi=C3=B3n de c=C3=B3mo el dinero afecta = las variables econ=C3=B3micas, todos podr=C3=ADan ser denominados "monet= aristas". Desde este punto de vista parece m=C3=A1s apropiado reservar e= l t=C3=A9rmino monetaristas para aquellos autores cuyo trabajo o influen= cia se centra en aspectos monetarios.

Los monetaristas en general aceptan la idea de que la pol=C3=ADtica m= onetaria puede, por lo menos, tener efectos a corto plazo sobre la produ= cci=C3=B3n (increment=C3=A1ndola) y los precios a un plazo m=C3=A1s larg= o (aument=C3=A1ndolos).[4] Por otra parte, si los monetari= stas se limitaran a afirmar que hay una relaci=C3=B3n proporcional entre= la oferta monetaria y el nivel general de precios a largo plazo, la may= or=C3=ADa de los economistas aceptar=C3=ADan esta idea, siempre que el p= eriodo a largo plazo sea lo bastante prolongado y otras variables =E2=80= =94como el tipo de instituciones financieras existentes=E2=80=94 se mant= uvieran constantes. Consecuentemente el monetarismo ha sido definido com= o =C2=ABla tendencia que enfatiza el papel del gobierno en controlar la cantidad del circulant= e. Es la visi=C3=B3n en la econom=C3=ADa monetaria de qu=C3=A9 v= ariaciones en la oferta monetaria tienen gran influencia= en el producto nacional en el corto plazo y sobre el nivel d= e precios en el largo, y que los objetivos de la pol=C3=ADtica m= onetaria se obtienen mejor a trav=C3=A9s del control de la oferta mo= netaria.=C2=BB[5]

El monetarismo se origin=C3=B3 a partir de la econom=C3= =ADa neocl=C3=A1sica[6] y constituy=C3=B3 una de sus v= ertientes, tuvo gran influencia en desarrollos posteriores (ver m=C3=A1s= abajo) y lleg=C3=B3 a ser una de las principales fuentes de la Nueva econom=C3=ADa cl=C3=A1sica.[7] Sin e= mbargo, es necesario mantener presente que no hay solo una aproximaci=C3= =B3n que pueda ser llamada monetarista.[8]

Or=C3=ADgenes[= editar]

El monetarismo tiene una larga tradici=C3=B3n en la historia del pens= amiento econ=C3=B3mico. Hay explicaciones detalladas y muy sofisticadas = sobre el modo en que un aumento de la cantidad de dinero afecta a los pr= ecios, y a la producci=C3=B3n a corto plazo, en los escritos de mediados= del siglo XVIII= del economista irland=C3=A9s Richard Cantillon y del fil=C3=B3sofo y economis= ta escoc=C3=A9s David = Hume. (ver Teor=C3=ADa cuantitativa del = dinero).

Sin embargo, los or=C3=ADgenes del monetarismo moderno se pueden hall= ar en la propuesta de John Stuart Mill de la dependencia general de los pre= cios sobre la cantidad del dinero en circulaci=C3=B3n, que sugiere q= ue el nivel general de precios se relaciona con la cantidad de dinero mu= ltiplicada por su velocidad de circulaci=C3=B3n.[9]= <= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">[10]

Stuart Mill mismo, a pesar que acepta en general la teor=C3=ADa cuant= itativa,[11] sugiere que lo importante o relevante no es= tanto la cantidad f=C3=ADsica de circulante, sino el cr=C3=A9dito y las compras (o demanda) (Stuart Mill consideraba que solo el met=C3=A1lico era di= nero propiamente tal. Los billetes son pagar=C3=A9s y, junto con otras notas prom= isorias -bancarias o individuales, ya sea "a la vista" (o "en demand= a") o a plazo- tales como cheq= ues, cr=C3=A9dito "en libros" o "a cuenta", etc, constituyen cr=C3=A9= dito.): =E2=80=9CPero ahora hemos encontrado que hay otras cosas, tales = como billetes de banco, letras de cambio y cheques, que = circulan como dinero, y realizan todas las funciones del mismo: y surge = la pregunta: =C2=BFOperan estos sustitutos sobre los precios en el misma= manera que el dinero en s=C3=AD? =C2=BFTiende un incremento en la canti= dad de papel transferible a aumentar los precios, de la misma manera y g= rado que un aumento en la cantidad de dinero...?=E2=80=9D Ha habido una = gran cantidad de debates y argumentos sobre la cuesti=C3=B3n de si algun= as de estas formas de cr=C3=A9dito y, en particular, si los billetes de = banco deben ser considerados como dinero. El asunto es tan puramente ver= bal que apenas merece la pena plantearlo, y uno tendr=C3=ADa cierta difi= cultad en comprender por qu=C3=A9 se le atribuye tanta importancia, si n= o hubiera algunas autoridades que creen, -adhiri=C3=A9ndose todav=C3=ADa= a la doctrina de la infancia de la sociedad y de la econom=C3=ADa pol=C3= =ADtica-, que la cantidad de dinero en comparaci=C3=B3n con la de los pr= oductos b=C3=A1sicos, determina los precios en general, y que es importa= nte demostrar que los billetes de banco y no otras formas de cr=C3=A9dit= o son dinero, a fin de apoyar la inferencia de que los billetes de banco= y no otras formas de cr=C3=A9dito influyen sobre los precios. Es obvio,= sin embargo, que los precios no dependen del dinero, sino de las compra= s. El dinero depositado en un banco y contra el cual no se creen d=C3=A9= bitos, o que sea debitado para fines distintos a la compra de mercanc=C3= =ADas, no tiene ning=C3=BAn efecto sobre los precios, de igual forma que= un cr=C3=A9dito que no se utiliza. El cr=C3=A9dito que se utiliza para = la compra de productos afecta a los precios de la misma manera que el di= nero. El dinero y el cr=C3=A9dito est=C3=A1n, pues, exactamente a la par= , en su efecto sobre los precios; y si optamos clasificar los billetes e= n una o la otra manera, es en este sentido por completo indiferente.[12]<= /span>

La situaci=C3=B3n que dio relevancia a la sugerencia de Mill fue que,= a fines del siglo XIX y principios del XX el antiguo sistema monetario = (basado en monedas de metales preciosos, principalmente = oro) estaba cayendo en desuso.[13= ] [14] La expansi=C3=B3n tanto de la pobl= aci=C3=B3n como de la econom=C3=ADa misma demandaron una expansi=C3=B3n = monetaria que la cantidad de metales preciosos pose=C3=ADdos por los ban= cos en la mayor=C3=ADa de los pa=C3=ADses no pod=C3=ADa satisfacer (aunq= ue en algunos, principalmente Inglaterra, hab=C3=ADa gran acumulaci=C3=B3n del metal[15] ), lo que, a su vez, dio origen a la expansi=C3=B3n del "= circulante de papel". Pero a=C3=BAn en Inglaterra, con esa gran acumulac= i=C3=B3n de oro, no hab=C3=ADa lo suficiente a principios del siglo XX c= omo para respaldar con oro y plata la totalidad de ese circulante, inclu= yendo papel moneda, cheques, pagar=C3=A9s = y otras formas de =E2=80=9Cdinero bancario=E2=80=9D o cr=C3=A9dito en ci= rculaci=C3=B3n. P. H. Wicksteed (un economista marginalista) escribiendo en 1910, desc= ribe as=C3=AD la situaci=C3=B3n:

"El conjunto de reserva met=C3=A1lica mantenida por todos los bancos= constituye una fracci=C3=B3n muy peque=C3=B1a de la responsabilidad col= ectiva total de los bancos para pagar oro en demanda,... (cada depositan= te)... entonces, tendr=C3=A1 derecho a retirar el monto total de su sald= o en oro, y cualquiera puede hacerlo realidad, siempre y cuando la maqui= naria est=C3=A9 funcionando sin problemas, pero ser=C3=ADa imposible que= cada uno lo hiciera (al mismo tiempo), porque la inmensa mayor parte de= la propiedad no existe en la forma de [monedas de oro] en absoluto, con= siste en toda clase de bienes y obligaciones, de un valor equivalente, e= n los t=C3=A9rminos de intercambio marginal, a la suma total que el p=C3= =BAblico tiene el te=C3=B3rico derecho a extraer en oro. Todo existe, si= n embargo... el importe total de los dep=C3=B3sitos en los bancos en con= junto, representa propiedad real, y toda esa propiedad est=C3=A1 en la p= osesi=C3=B3n de los bancos en cada momento, a su importe total... La pro= piedad de los clientes, representados por sus saldos en el banco, es pro= piedad real y est=C3=A1 haciendo un trabajo real,... (Percibir que) el s= istema bancario de Inglaterra consiste en un dispositivo de astucia para= hacer que Soberanos de Oro que s=C3=B3lo existen como a= notaciones en un libro hagan el trabajo de los soberanos reales, es un e= rror fundamental.=E2=80=9D.<= a href=3D"#cite_note-16">[16]

En consecuencia el papel moneda comenz=C3=B3 a adquirir cada vez m=C3=A1s importanc= ia. Al mismo tiempo, la situaci=C3=B3n, que ha sido llamada ca=C3=B3tica= [17] creada por la emisi=C3=B3n libre de b= illetes de bancos privados estaba siendo reemplazada con billetes em= itidos y respaldados por el Es= tado a trav=C3=A9s del Banco Central.[18] = (ver tambi=C3=A9n Sistema de reserva = fraccional y bancos centrales ).

En esa situaci=C3=B3n dos fen=C3=B3menos se hicieron aparentes. Prime= ro, la poblaci=C3=B3n en general acept=C3=B3 los billetes sin demandar s= u transformaci=C3=B3n inmediata en metales preciosos. Segundo, la expans= i=C3=B3n monetaria -especialmente la del cr=C3=A9dito- sin respaldo real= en met=C3=A1lico no dio lugar a una inflaci=C3=B3n desenfrenada, como s= e tem=C3=ADa. Al mismo tiempo -y a nivel de la disciplina- el auge de la= escuela marginalista -que sucedi=C3=B3 en esa =C3=A9poca- implic= =C3=B3 el abandono de las sugerencias cl=C3=A1sicas acerca de La cuesti=C3=B3n de la cantidad del circulante. Esto dio lugar a = dudas sobre la validez de la "teor=C3=ADa cuantitativa" (o al menos, las= interpretaciones anteriores),[19<= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">] y ciertamente demanda= ba una exploraci=C3=B3n y explicaci=C3=B3n. (A. Leijonhufvud, op. cit) (= V=C3=A9ase tambi=C3=A9n Chartalismo). Consecuentemente se formularon una variedad de apr= oximaciones denominadas "monetaristas".

Formulaci=C3=B3n del enfoque monetarista[edit= ar]

Los monetaristas comparten la concepci=C3=B3n de la Econom=C3= =ADa cl=C3=A1sica y neocl=C3=A1sica del equilibrio econ=C3=B3= mico; espec=C3=ADficamente, la propuesta que si la oferta monetaria = equipara la demanda por liquidez, los precios ser=C3=A1n estables. Igual= mente comparten la percepci=C3=B3n de un mercado libre pero con el proviso que el gobierno (o autoridades = monetarias) tienen la obligaci=C3=B3n de mantener la estabilidad econ= =C3=B3mica ( no obstante, ver "Aporte de Lerner" etc, m=C3=A1s abajo= ). A diferencia del resto de los neocl=C3=A1sicos (y marginalistas) no = utilizan el individualismo metodologic= o: el inter=C3=A9s monetarista se centra en agregados (monetario, de= manda, etc)

La idea monetarista b=C3=A1sica consiste en analizar en conjunto la d= emanda total de dinero y la oferta monetaria. Se asume que las autoridad= es econ=C3=B3micas tienen capacidad y poder para fijar la oferta de dine= ro nominal (sin tener en cuenta los efectos de los precios) ya que contr= olan tanto la cantidad que se imprime o acu=C3=B1a as=C3=AD como la crea= ci=C3=B3n de dinero bancario; pero los individuos y empresan tienen libe= rtad para tomar decisiones sobre la cantidad de efectivo real que desean= obtener.

As=C3=AD, la problem=C3=A1tica monetarista llega a ser el como se est= ablece el equilibrio o estabilidad econ=C3=B3mica, en la ausencia de un = sistema obvio de regulaci=C3=B3n del circulante (incluyendo el cr=C3=A9d= ito). Espec=C3=ADficamente, cu=C3=A1l es la pol=C3=ADtica monetaria<= /a> que un gobierno debe seguir a fin de obtener y mantener estabilidad = y cu=C3=A1les son los mecanismos que esa autoridad monetaria posee con e= se prop=C3=B3sito, dado que, por un lado, ya sea los bancos privados, en= esa =C3=A9poca, y el Estado en general pueden, teniendo en cuenta el cr= =C3=A9dito, emitir casi libremente y de hecho se est=C3=A1 emitiendo por= sobre la paridad te=C3=B3rica exigida ya sea por el patr=C3=B3n oro o, m=C3=A1s= recientemente, cualquier otro, y, por el otro, dado que, como Stuart Mi= ll observa, no importa lo que la autoridad haga, si alguien desea o encu= entra conveniente utilizar el cr=C3=A9dito, lo utilizara. Esto, por supu= esto, llama atenci=C3=B3n al papel y regulaci=C3=B3n del cr=C3=A9dito.

Aporte de Wick= sell[= editar]

Las sugerencias que nos interesan de Knut Wicksell se encuentran principalmente e= n su "Geldzins und G=C3=BCterpreise" (1889)[20] ). En ge= neral Wicksell busc=C3=B3 defender la sugerencia de la teor=C3=ADa cuant= itativa. Desde su punto de vista hay una cierta cantidad de circulante q= ue mantiene los precios estables. Esa cantidad est=C3=A1 determinada por= la relaci=C3=B3n entre tasa de inter=C3=A9s y la tasa de ganancia del capit= al.[21] N=C3=B3tese que esa sugerencia implica que la ta= sa de inter=C3=A9s es la =C3=BAltima determinante de la cantidad de circ= ulante y, en consecuencia, de los precios. Esta posici=C3=B3n se puede t= razar a la tentativa de Stuart Mill de preservar tanto la teor=C3=ADa cu= antitativa como la dicotom=C3=ADa cl=C3=A1sica.

La tesis de Wicksell se puede resumir as=C3=AD: la cantidad de circul= ante que mantiene estabilidad de precios es la que el mercado naturalmen= te demanda, y es la obligaci=C3=B3n de los bancos, en general, y del est= ado, en particular, proveerla.[22<= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">] Eso se consigue a tra= v=C3=A9s del estado (Banco central o equivalente) imprimiendo el suficiente dinero y= poni=C3=A9ndolo a disposici=C3=B3n del p=C3=BAblico. No importa si el e= stado imprime en exceso (exceso de oferta), siempre y cuando ese p=C3=BA= blico o mercado solo utilice lo que naturalmente necesite. Esa condici=C3= =B3n (Es decir, que tanto la oferta como la demanda monetaria se igualen= ) se satisfar=C3=A1 si la tasa de inter=C3=A9s es la natural. Si la tasa= de inter=C3=A9s a la que el banco (o bancos) conceden pr=C3=A9stamos no= es la natural, habr=C3=A1 ya sea exceso o escasez de circulante y los p= recios no estar=C3=A1n en equilibrio.[23]

Wicksell establece una diferencia fundamental entre la tasa normal= o natural de inter=C3=A9s y la que puede ser llamada bancaria o financiera. La tasa normal o natu= ral es aquella en la cual los = ahorros equiparan a la inversi=C3=B3n. En otras palabras, es aquella tasa de i= nter=C3=A9s del capital que existir=C3=ADa si la econom=C3=ADa e= stuviera en equilibrio y ni siquiera hubieran bancos u otras institucion= es financieras (de hecho, en la opini=C3=B3n de Wicksell, incluso si los= pr=C3=A9stamos o inversiones no fueran en dinero sino en bienes de capi= tal). Es decir, es equivalente a la tasa de ganancia en una situaci=C3=B3= n de equilibrio econ=C3=B3mico. Pero, como es obvio, los bancos ni pagan= por dep=C3=B3sitos ni prestan a esa tasa, lo que introduce un elemento = de inestabilidad. Adicionalmente, la tasa natural no es permanente. Si l= os bancos prestan a una tasa inferior, el ahorro caer=C3=A1, habr=C3=A1 = exceso de demanda y los precios aumentaran. Viceversa, si los bancos dem= andan sobre esa tasa natural por sus cr=C3=A9ditos, aumentara el ahorro = y habr=C3=A1 disminuci=C3=B3n de inversi=C3=B3n y demanda en general, lo= que disminuir=C3=A1 los precios.[= 24]

Lo anterior parece sugerir la necesidad de establecer entonces cual e= s esa tasa natural, lo que, por lo menos en los tiempos de Wicksell era = complejo[25] (especialmente dado que las condiciones rea= les est=C3=A1n en constante flujo). Sin embargo, Wicksell sugiere una so= luci=C3=B3n pr=C3=A1ctica que es simple:

"Esto no significa que los bancos deban en realidad determinar la ta= sa natural antes de fijar sus propias tasas de inter=C3=A9s. Eso seria, = por supuesto, impractico y tambi=C3=A9n innecesario. Dado que el precio = corriente de las mercader=C3=ADas provee una medida confiable del acuerd= o o desacuerdo de ambas tasas. El procedimiento es m=C3=A1s bien simple:= en la medida que los precios permanezcan sin cambiar la tasa de inter=C3= =A9s de los bancos debe permanecer sin cambiar. Si los precios aumentan,= la tasa de inter=C3=A9s de los bancos debe aumentar y si los precios ca= en, la tasa de inter=C3=A9s debe ser disminuida y a partir de ese moment= o mantenida a ese nuevo nivel hasta que una nueva modificaci=C3=B3n de l= os precios demande una nueva modificaci=C3=B3n del inter=C3=A9s en una d= irecci=C3=B3n o la otra" (K. Wickell, op. cit).

Es decir, las autoridades monetarias deber=C3=ADan practicar lo que a= hora se llama Inflaci=C3=B3n objetivo.[26] [27]

Dado que, de hecho, la econom=C3=ADa (y la poblaci=C3=B3n) est=C3=A1 = creciendo, ese crecimiento se financia con cr=C3=A9dito o dinero creado de la na= da[28] por las autoridades financieras y los bancos.= Siempre y cuando ese dinero se preste a la misma tasa de inter=C3=A9s n= ormal, los precios se mantendr=C3=A1n.

Ese argumento general lleg=C3=B3 a tener gran influencia posterior ta= nto a nivel general en teor=C3=ADa y pr=C3=A1ctica macroecon=C3=B3mica[29= ] [30] como en dos escuelas que generalme= nte se consideran contrapuestas, constituyendo, por un lado, una de las = bases de la teor=C3=ADa austr=C3=ADaca del ciclo econ=C3=B3mic= o[31] y, por el otro, una de las bases del keynesianismo.[32]

Posteriormente Fisher denomino a la tasa normal o natural tas= a real y la tasa bancaria tasa nominal.

Famosamente Fisher disputo la sugerencia de Wicksell en el sentido qu= e es la tasa de inter=C3=A9s lo que determina los precios, lo que ha dad= o origen a una de las divisiones m=C3=A1s profundas en la aproximaci=C3=B3= n a problemas financieros en la macroeconomia[33] (Para = otros aspectos e implicaciones de estas diferencias, ver[34] ) que culmin=C3=B3 en el Debate de las dos Cambridge. La posici=C3=B3n de Wicksell, ya delineada influyendo en las escuelas= mencionadas, la de Fisher influyo a Milton Friedman, y a trav=C3=A9s de= =C3=A9l, a los Nuevos cl=C3=A1sicos.[35] Esto ha llevado a algunos a sugerir la existencia de dos tipos = de monetarismo.[36]

Apo= rte del Grupo de Cambridge[editar]

El llamado =E2=80=9CGrupo de Cambridge=E2=80=9D representa las concep= ciones de un grupo de economistas neocl=C3=A1sicos que pertenecieron a l= a Universidad de Cambridge -integrado principalmente por Alfred Marshall, Pigou<= /a>, John Maynard Keynes cuando joven, etc- en materias financieras y, p= or ende, de considerable importancia en el monetarismo.[37] Su representante m=C3=A1s conocido en asuntos monetarios es Ralph George= Hawtrey.

Para los integrantes del grupo (y los influidos por el), la funci=C3=B3= n del dinero es no solo servir como facilitador de comercio o medio de c= ambio sino tambi=C3=A9n como mecanismo de conservar valor entre transacc= iones. Esto implica que los individuos (incluyendo empresas, etc) pueden= considerar conveniente mantener cierta cantidad de dinero como reser= va (monetaria) l=C3=ADquida.

Lo anterior introduce la llamada Ecuaci=C3=B3n de Cambridge= que formaliza el concepto de "propensidad a mantener dinero en los = bolsillos" y lo representa por la letra k:

3D"M^{\textit{d=

En el cual, 3D"= es la demanda de dinero, P precios, Y el ingre= so total y k la fracci=C3=B3n de circulante mantenida como reserva l=C3=AD= quida.

N=C3=B3tese que en esta visi=C3=B3n la demanda de dinero (cantidad de= circulante) corresponde no tanto a las tasas de inter=C3=A9s, como Wick= sell sugiere, sino a la relaci=C3=B3n volumen total de ventas o volumen = de comercio (PY) m=C3=A1s la cantidad mantenida como reserva. Pero esa c= antidad de reserva depende a su vez de las tasas de inter=C3=A9s. Esa si= tuaci=C3=B3n fue directamente examinada por Hawtrey.

Cont= ribuci=C3=B3n de Hawtrey[editar]

La preocupaci=C3=B3n central de Hawtrey, en sus numerosas obras, fue = identificar las herramientas a disposici=C3=B3n de las autoridades monet= arias. A fin de determinar esas, Hawtrey fue uno de los primeros en prop= oner una interpretaci=C3=B3n monetaria del ciclo econ=C3=B3mico,[38] para lo cual se bas=C3=B3 en el trabajo tanto de los otro= s miembros del grupo de Cambridge como en el de Wicksell,[39]<= /sup> sirviendo as=C3=AD como puente entre esas ideas y el trabajo poste= rior de Keynes. (Keynes y Hawtrey eran amigos, a pesar de lo cual no com= part=C3=ADan propuestas[40] ).

Adicionalmente apoy=C3=B3 lo que se llam=C3=B3 m=C3=A1s tarde la P= erspectiva de Hacienda (Treasury View) =E2=80=94 la sugerencia que l= a = pol=C3=ADtica fiscal no tiene ning=C3=BAn efecto sobre el monto tota= l de la actividad econ=C3=B3mica y/o el desempleo, incluso en tiempos de= recesi=C3=B3n econ=C3=B3mica. Tambi=C3=A9n adelant=C3=B3 en 1931 el concepto que ll= eg=C3=B3 a ser conocido como el efecto multiplicador (o, simplemente, = "el multiplicador"), un coeficiente que muestra el e= fecto de un cambio en la inversi=C3=B3n nacional total en el monto de la= renta nacional total.

Su propuesta en relaci=C3=B3n a los ciclos puede ser resumida as=C3=AD= : Los actores principales en el ciclo econ=C3=B3mico son los mayoristas u otros intermediari= os que basan sus actividades en el cr=C3=A9dito bancario y por tanto son= muy sensitivos a las tasas de inter=C3=A9s. Cualquier inyecci=C3=B3n de= dinero que reduzca la tasa de inter=C3=A9s induce a estos intermediario= s a incrementar sus in= ventarios; lo que hacen mediante el aumento de sus endeudamiento con= los bancos y exigiendo aumentos en la producci=C3=B3n de las empresas. = Pero el aumento de la producci=C3=B3n toma tiempo, consecuentemente, la = oferta monetaria es por lo menos moment=C3=A1neamente excesiva en relaci= =C3=B3n al ingreso real (formado por salarios). Esto conduce a una mayor= demanda de productos de inversi=C3=B3n por los inversionistas (que = recesiva. Esto puede, en la opini=C3=B3n de Hawtrey, terminar en un = callej=C3=B3n sin salida: si las ventas decaen m=C3=A1s r=C3=A1pido que = lo que los mayoristas previeron, sus inventarios pueden aumentar en luga= r de decaer. En esa situaci=C3=B3n, ninguna oferta de dinero, por reduci= da que sea la tasa de inter=C3=A9s, los inducir=C3=A1 a endeudarse para = comprar de los productores, consecuentemente la demanda cae indefinidame= nte. En la opini=C3=B3n de Hawtrey, esa fue la situaci=C3=B3n que conduj= o a la Gran depresi=C3=B3n.

La soluci=C3=B3n que Hawtrey propuso lleg=C3=B3 a ser conocida como <= b>Pol=C3=ADtica monetaria activa o discrecionaria. Esta se ba= sa en la propuesta que las autoridades monetarias deben tener una actitu= d proactiva, interviniendo a fin de prevenir la aparici=C3=B3n de situac= iones que puedan degenerar en crisis: "es mucho mejor regular el cr=C3=A9= dito constantemente de tal manera que ninguno de los dos c=C3=ADrculos v= iciosos (inflaci=C3=B3n o deflaci=C3=B3n) puedan arraigarse seriamente "= . En la pr=C3=A1ctica una pol=C3=ADtica monetaria activa significa que e= l Banco central (o autoridad monetaria) debe participar en los mercados = financieros (por ejemplo, comprando o vendiendo divisas); variando las t= asas de inter=C3=A9s y los requerimientos de reservas bancarias, etc. co= n la intenci=C3=B3n de modificar tanto la cantidad de circulante como la= s tasas de inter=C3=A9s a fin mantener el ingreso nacional estable.[41]

N=C3=B3tese que los mecanismos que esta propuesta sugiere son exclusi= vamente monetarios, diferenciandose as=C3=AD de la propuesta posterior d= e Keynes acerca de una pol=C3=ADtica fiscal activa.[42]

Aporte de Fisher= [edit= ar]

El trabajo de Irving Fisher (quien ha sido descrito como el mejor economista que = EEUU ha producido[43] ), se puede encontrar en su "The T= heory of interest"[44] (1930).

Al igual que Wicksell, Fisher se basa y trata de defender la teor=C3=AD= a cuantitativa (pero abandona impl=C3=ADcitamente la dicotom=C3=ADa). En= esa defensa de la teor=C3=ADa cuantitativa Fisher la actualiza, introdu= ciendo la llamada Ecuaci=C3=B3n de intercambio, que generalmente = se presenta de la siguiente manera:

3D"M

en la cual

3D"M\," es la cantidad total de dinero circulando en una econom=C3=ADa en un= momento o periodo dado (en las ecuaciones originales Fisher establece u= na diferencia entre el dinero en efectivo y los dep=C3=B3sitos de cuenta= s corrientes. Ambas sumas constituyen el "circulante" en un momento dado= ).
3D"V\," es la Velocidad del dinero, es decir, el promedio de veces que esa c= antidad de dinero es gastada o circula en esa econom=C3=ADa en ese perio= do.
3D"P\," son los precios.
3D"Q\," es la cantidad de bienes "vendidos" en ese periodo. (considerando ca= da venta o transacci=C3=B3n de cada bien. Es decir, una mercader=C3=ADa = puede ser contada varias veces, una por cada venta que experimente)
=

As=C3=AD, por ejemplo; P Q es el costo (o precio) nominal de todo lo = vendido/comprado en una econom=C3=ADa determinada en un periodo dado. La= V de Fisher es el inverso del k de la "ecuaci=C3=B3n de Cambridge".[45]<= /span> [46]

Fisher argumenta que la velocidad del dinero es relativamente estable= . Consecuentemente, asumiendo equilibrio y empleo pleno, lo fundamental = es la cantidad del circulante. Si esa cantidad aumenta, aumentara el res= ultado de PQ. Pero, dado que Q no puede cambiar a menos que cambien las = variables t=C3=A9cnicas, lo =C3=BAnico que puede realmente cambiar es P,= es decir, los precios. (si no hay pleno empleo, es posible que un aumen= to de M lleve a uno de Q).

Sigue que cambios en precios se deben a cambios en el circulante. Inv= ersamente, a fin de controlar los precios (evitar inflaci=C3=B3n o defla= ci=C3=B3n) se debe controlar la cantidad de circulante. A partir de lo a= nterior, Fisher propuso un plan a fin de estabilizar la moneda.[47] Sin embargo, para entenderla es necesario tener una visi=C3=B3n= m=C3=A1s general de su posici=C3=B3n.

Fisher comenz=C3=B3 tratando de establecer las bases sobre la cual el= equilibrio se establece. Desde el punto de vista monetario, esto equiva= le a establecer como se llega a la situaci=C3=B3n en la cual los ahorros= igualan a la inversi=C3=B3n. (que implica que los precios ser=C3=A1n es= table. Fisher cre=C3=ADa, como los monetaristas en general, que son las = fluctuaciones de precios las que causan las crisis). Inicialmente Fisher= no concedi=C3=B3 mayor importancia en el c=C3=A1lculo de la cantidad de= circulante a aquel que se origina en cuentas corrientes= (cheques, tarjetas de cr=C3=A9dito, etc), considerando que ta= les dep=C3=B3sitos constituyen una fracci=C3=B3n estable y= menor del circulante. Otra manera de decir eso es que solo el volumen t= otal de moneda impresa y/o acu=C3=B1ada cuenta para los c=C3=A1lculos. C= on posterioridad a la gran crisis de la d=C3=A9cada del 30 del siglo XX,= Fisher cambio de opini=C3=B3n.

Fisher sugeri=C3=B3 originalmente[48] que la tasa de = ganancia (o tasa de inter=C3=A9s real) depende de dos factores: la volun= tad de ahorro o "posponer consumo" de la sociedad y las =E2=80=9Ctasa de= oportunidad de inversi=C3=B3n=E2=80=9D (que depende de los niveles tecn= ol=C3=B3gicos y recursos naturales disponibles). En un extremo, todos lo= s recursos se utilizan para consumir en el presente. En el otro, todos s= e utilizan para invertir (consumir en el futuro). El equilibrio se estab= lece en ese punto en el cual ambas tendencias se igualan. Se puede conce= bir entonces la tasa de inter=C3=A9s real (o tasa de ganancia) como el p= remio que los individuos demandan a fin de posponer su consumo. Dado que= cada unidad de consumo presente extra disminuye en su =E2=80=9Cmargen d= e utilidad=E2=80=9D pero lo mismo sucede con unidades adicionales de inv= ersi=C3=B3n o consumo futuro, tambi=C3=A9n puede ser percibida como el p= unto en el cual se igualan las utilidades marginales de ambas variables.

=

Sin embargo lo anterior no resuelve el problema de la expansi=C3=B3n = de circulante y el como establecer, en forma pr=C3=A1ctica, cual es el n= ivel apropiado del mismo. La propuesta de Fisher para lograr esto era el= abandono del est=C3=A1ndar del oro (incluyendo el uso de monedas de met= ales preciosos) y su reemplazo con papel moneda cambiable a oro libremen= te pero a una tasa variable a fin de mantener el poder de compra de la u= nidad monetaria. Por ejemplo, si los precios var=C3=ADan en un 1%, la ca= ntidad de oro que una unidad monetaria =E2=80=9Ccompra=E2=80=9D tambi=C3= =A9n variar=C3=ADa en un 1%, de esa manera, los precios se mantendr=C3=AD= an estable en relaci=C3=B3n a la =E2=80=9Cmoneda legal=E2=80=9D.[49] N=C3=B3tese que esto implica que alguien (el Estado o Gobierno)= es responsable de =E2=80=9Cproducir=E2=80=9D el oro necesario para mant= ener esa estabilidad. Es decir, la funci=C3=B3n del Estado es mantener l= a estabilidad monetaria. Por ejemplo, si la cantidad de oro en existenci= a aumenta (produciendo inflaci=C3=B3n) el Estado debe reducir el oro que= cada unidad monetaria representa (reducir el precio del oro). Eso lleva= a los individuos a cambiar sus billetes por oro, reduciendo el circulan= te y aumentando los precios, restableciendo as=C3=AD el equilibrio, etc.=

Posteriormente al comienzo de la Gran Crisis, Fisher extendi=C3=B3 su= teor=C3=ADa del inter=C3=A9s,[50<= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">] agregando otro factor= : los cr=C3=A9ditos bancarios que se originan en los pr=C3=A9stamos de l= os dineros depositados en cuentas corrientes, el que al mismo tiempo est= a disponible para los propietarios de las cuentas; lo que significa que = el circulante se expande r=C3=A1pidamente (los bancos =E2=80=9Ccrean din= ero de la nada=E2=80=9D). Tales excesos de cr=C3=A9dito llevan a exceso = de liquidez que aumenta los precios, En la presencia de inflaci=C3=B3n, = los individuos demandan, en retorno por sus inversiones, no solo la tasa= de inter=C3=A9s real sino tambi=C3=A9n una fracci=C3=B3n que compense p= or la perdida de poder de compra de su dinero. Esta =E2=80=9Ctasa de int= er=C3=A9s nominal=E2=80=9D iguala entonces a la tasa de inter=C3=A9s rea= l m=C3=A1s la tasa de inflaci=C3=B3n esperada.

Por ejemplo, asumase que la tasa de inter=C3=A9s real (o tasa de gana= ncia) es 5% y la tasa de inflaci=C3=B3n, por decir algo, 3%. Los inversi= onistas demandaran aproximadamente 8% de retorno en sus inversiones, a f= in de obtener no solo la ganancia esperada, sino tambi=C3=A9n el retorno= del poder de compra de las sumas invertidas. El efecto que la tasa de i= nflaci=C3=B3n que se anticipa tiene sobre las tasas de inter=C3=A9s se c= onoce como Efecto de Fisher.

La soluci=C3=B3n obvia, en la opini=C3=B3n de Fisher, es requerir que= dep=C3=B3sitos de cuentas corrientes tengan 100% de respaldo: los banco= s solo podr=C3=ADan prestar su propio dinero (proveniente de la venta de= acciones del banco, etc) o aquel en cuentas de dep=C3=B3sito. Esto elim= inar=C3=ADa corridas bancarias pero al mismo tiempo much= as de las ganancias de los bancos, los que tendr=C3=ADan que cobrar por = el dinero guardado en cuentas corrientes.[= 51]

Otro efecto de la gran crisis fue el abandono del patr=C3=B3n oro com= o medida de valor de la moneda. Esto requiri=C3=B3 que Fisher modificara= su propuesta de pol=C3=ADtica monetaria activa. En lugar de compra/vent= a de oro, el estado deber=C3=ADa participar en el mercado de activos mon= etarios (acciones, bonos, etc), comprando tales activos si los precios d= ecaen y vendiendo si los precios aumentan. En otras palabras, los activo= s financieros en la bolsa reemplazar=C3=ADan el oro.[52]=

N=C3=B3tese que, a trav=C3=A9s de todo lo anterior, lo fundamental es= , a diferencia de Wicksell, la cantidad de circulante, no la tasa de int= er=C3=A9s. Es el exceso de dinero, en esta visi=C3=B3n, lo que lleva a u= n incremento en los precios y esa inflaci=C3=B3n conduce, debido al efec= to de Fisher, al aumento en la tasa de inter=C3=A9s nominal o bancaria (= lo que eventualmente afecta la tasa de inter=C3=A9s real o de ganancia).= La funci=C3=B3n del estado, a fin de mantener precios estables, es cont= rolar el circulante, tanto a trav=C3=A9s de limitar su impresi=C3=B3n co= mo modificando las tasas de encaje y, en general, con una participaci=C3= =B3n activa en los mercados financieros.

Sin embargo, y debido principalmente a una predicci=C3=B3n generalmen= te percibida como seriamente err=C3=B3nea,[= 53] el aporte d= e Fisher cayo en el olvido hasta despu=C3=A9s de la Segunda Guerra Mun= dial, cuando fue revivido gracias al trabajo de Clark Warburton (quien fue descrito como =E2=80=9Cel primer monetarista en el periodo= que sigui=C3=B3 la Segunda Guerra Mundial[= 54] ) y quien s= irvi=C3=B3 de puente entre el trabajo de Fisher y el de Friedman.

Un punto controversial es la propuesta de algunos que Keynes no fue t= anto influido por la visi=C3=B3n de Wicksell sino m=C3=A1s bien la de Fi= sher, estando consecuentemente, monetariamente m=C3=A1s cerca del grupo = de teor=C3=ADas llamadas "cuantitativas", representadas por, entre otros= , Fisher, Milton Friedman y Don Patinkin (esta es un =C3=A1rea compleja= . Para una introducci=C3=B3n, ver Roger W. Garrison (1993): Is Milton Friedman a Keynesian?).

Aporte de Lerner= [edit= ar]

Las propuestas de Abba Lerner, que se remontan a 1943[= 55] y dieron or= igen a la llamada Finanza funcional, son demasiado complejas como presentar = aqu=C3=AD algo m=C3=A1s que un resumen general y simplista. A pesar que = es posible trazar muchas de esas sugerencias a las propuestas de los aut= ores ya delineados, est=C3=A1n expuestas en forma tal que son generalmen= te sorprendentes a primera vista para los no especialistas. Desde este p= unto de vista, el aporte de Lerner puede ser visto como una sistematizac= i=C3=B3n de posiciones anteriores. Hay sin embargo una sugerencia que es= genuinamente revolucionaria: el abandono de la tentativa de mantener un= equilibrio econ=C3=B3mico (equiparado como objetivo de las finanzas = sanas de las propuestas anteriores) y su reemplazo con la propuesta = que el objetivo principal de las pol=C3=ADticas econ=C3=B3micas estatales es promover el crecimiento= y desarrollo. (n=C3=B3tese el cambio de =C3=A9nfasis: de solo pol=C3=AD= tica monetaria a pol=C3=ADticas econ=C3=B3micas[56] ).

La posici=C3=B3n de Lerner puede ser vista como prefigurando o introd= uciendo las concepciones monetarias modernas.[57] Una ex= posici=C3=B3n sucinta de esa propuestas podr=C3=ADa ser:

  • Sin embargo, el Estado no puede forzar a los individuos a aceptar el= dinero extra (y a=C3=BAn si pudiera, tal "distribuci=C3=B3n" no tendr=C3= =ADa otros resultados que la inflaci=C3=B3n). El dinero solo puede entra= r en circulaci=C3=B3n a trav=C3=A9s de otros mecanismos (por ejemplo, el= Estado autoriza a los bancos a reducir su encaje, lo que significa que = el nivel de pr=C3=A9stamos potencialmente aumenta). Esto implica, en la = opini=C3=B3n de Lerner, que las herramientas principales que el Estado p= osee para lograr sus objetivos son esos mecanismos, y no la impresi=C3=B3= n de dinero (a la que, sin embargo, el Estado debe recurrir sin vacilaci= =C3=B3n si es conveniente o necesario). En sus palabras: =E2=80=9CTodas = las decisiones de importancia se hacen cuando se decide aplicar los inst= rumentos fiscales... Si uno de esos instrumentos envuelve el pago de din= ero... el efecto ser=C3=A1 el mismo ya sea si el dinero estaba depositad= o en el tesoro o si fue necesario imprimirlo porque ese tesoro no ten=C3= =ADa lo suficiente.... el uso del instrumento nunca deber=C3=ADa ser res= tringido simplemente porque podr=C3=ADa no haber lo suficiente en reserv= a en el tesoro en el momento."[58<= span class=3D"corchete-llamada">] Sigue que el Estado t= iene a su disposici=C3=B3n varios mecanismos para lograr su objetivo. Le= rner sugiere que hay tres "pares" de instrum= entos financieros:
  • cobra de impuestos y gastos fiscales
  • compras y ventas por parte del Estado
  • Pr=C3=A9stamos y endeudamiento fiscal.

N=C3=B3tese que algunos de esos mecanismos son m=C3=A1s apropiados pa= ra promover expansi=C3=B3n, otros para reducirla (cuando, por ejemplo, l= a econom=C3=ADa se "sobrecalienta" o, en otras palabra, se expande damas= iado r=C3=A1pidamente)

3D""
Deuda de Estados Unidos desde 1940 hasta 2010. La l=C3=ADnea roja indica= la deuda p=C3=BAblica neta y la l=C3=ADnea negra indica la deuda total.= La diferencia entre ambas incluye la deuda que mantiene el gobierno fed= eral consigo mismo. El segundo panel muestra las mismas deudas pero en f= unci=C3=B3n del porcentaje del PIB estadounidense (la divisi=C3=B3n se realiza ent= re d=C3=B3lares del mismo a=C3=B1o) mientras que el panel de arriba est=C3= =A1 deflactado al valor de 2010.

La contribuci=C3=B3n de Lerner, a pesar que en la actualidad se consi= dera simplista, fue aplicada en EEU en el periodo que va desde el fin de= la Segunda Guerra Mundial a la primera parte de la d=C3=A9cada de 1970,= y ha tenido gran influencia en concepciones monetarias modernas.[59] Generalmente se considera que fue responsable de un cambio= de la percepci=C3=B3n de la "necesidad", sugerida por los monetaristas = anteriores, de mantener de un presupuesto equilibrado a la que lo que re= almente importa es el tama=C3=B1o de tales d=C3=A9ficits como porcentaje= del PIB,[60] [61]= [62] = [63] [64] lo= que fue utilizado como justificaci=C3=B3n de una alegada tendencia en e= se pa=C3=ADs a mantener d=C3=A9ficit presupuestarios[65]= (y a aumentar la cantidad de d=C3=B3lares en circulaci=C3=B3n - Ver Crisis del tech= o de deuda de Estados Unidos de 2011).

Algunos han interpretado lo anterior como sugiriendo que el Estado pu= ede imprimir ilimitadamente. Es necesario notar que la finanza funcional= no sugiere ni d=C3=A9ficits ni super=C3=A1vits perm= anentes. La finanza funcional no es una propuesta o pol=C3=ADtica acerca= de medidas financieras permanentes como tales, sino m=C3=A1s bien un si= stema o aproximaci=C3=B3n que sugiere que la manera apropiada de medir o= evaluar cualquier propuesta es en relaci=C3=B3n a los resultados, no en= relaci=C3=B3n a alg=C3=BAn principio general o alg=C3=BAn sistema ideal= , etc. N=C3=B3tese (gr=C3=A1fico a la izquierda) que la deuda p=C3=BAbli= ca de EEUU =E2=80=94 pa=C3=ADs en el cual estas propuestas fueron aplica= das entre 1950- 1980=E2=80=94 disminuyo tanto en el total como en porcen= taje del PIB en ese periodo.

Igualmente se ha sugerido que las propuestas de Lerner son la base de= la pol=C3=ADtica del llamado est=C3=ADmulo monetario[66] o Flexibilizaci=C3= =B3n cuantitativa que se ha utilizado en numerosos pa=C3=ADses como = consecuencia de la Crisis financiera de 2008 ), siendo, en e= se sentido, generalmente aceptada. Sin embargo, esta percepci=C3=B3n no = es del todo correcta.[67] Si no otra cosa, la pr=C3=A1ct= ica posterior parece haber diluido la propuesta de Lerner de una en la c= ual se puede recurrir a la emisi=C3=B3n de dinero si es necesario a fin = de financiar un instrumento fiscal a una en la cual basta y sobra con po= ner dinero a disposici=C3=B3n del p=C3=BAblico o, m=C3=A1s recientemente= , los bancos a fin de estabilizar sus reservas, pero no para financiar d= emanda.[68]

Las sugerencias de Lerner tambi=C3=A9n han tenido gran influencia en = lo que se llama Teor=C3=ADa Monetaria Moder= na[69] (posici=C3=B3n que se desarroll=C3=B3 a parti= r del trabajo de Lerner y el Chartalismo[= 70] ), ambas ap= roximaciones teniendo asunciones similares o complementarias.[71]

Con= tribuci=C3=B3n de Friedman[editar]

El aporte de Milton Friedman es demasiado vasto como para ofrecer algo m=C3=A1= s que una puntualizaci=C3=B3n simplista. Friedman es considerado el fund= ador del monetarismo moderno,[72] [73] t= al como es ejemplificado en la Escuela de Ec= onom=C3=ADa de Chicago y una de mayores influencias en el pensamient= o econ=C3=B3mico en la segunda parte del siglo XX e incluso posteriormen= te, a trav=C3=A9s de su influencia en la Nueva eco= nom=C3=ADa cl=C3=A1sica.

Friedman introdujo lo que generalmente se considera la concepci=C3=B3= n o interpretaci=C3=B3n actual (fines del siglo XX y principios del XXI)= de la teor=C3=ADa cuantitativa.[7= 4] Se puede considerar= que Friedman sintetiza el acercamiento de los monetaristas previos, bas= =C3=A1ndose principalmente en las sugerencias de Fisher y Lerner. Por ej= emplo: "Lo que deber=C3=ADamos considerar y lo que se est=C3=A1 consider= ando es una legislaci=C3=B3n que limite los impuestos y gastos fiscales = de a=C3=B1o a a=C3=B1o a no m=C3=A1s que el aumento de la poblaci=C3=B3n= y la inflaci=C3=B3n. No creo que haya necesidad que eso sea en la forma= de un presupuesto balanceado, pero (esa propuesta) podr=C3=ADa ser una = forma de lograrlo=E2=80=9D.<= a href=3D"#cite_note-75">[75] "La inflaci=C3=B3n es si= empre y en todo lugar un fen=C3=B3meno monetario".[76] "= El camino m=C3=A1s seguro para una recuperaci=C3=B3n econ=C3=B3mica sana= es aumentar la tasa de crecimiento monetario, para cambiar la escasez d= e dinero a dinero f=C3=A1cil,.... pero sin volver a la exageraci=C3=B3n.= Eso har=C3=ADa que las tan necesarias reformas econ=C3=B3micas y financ= ieras fueran mucho m=C3=A1s f=C3=A1cil de conseguir.".[77]

De acuerdo a la interpretaci=C3=B3n de Friedman de la teor=C3=ADa cua= ntitativa, tanto la velocidad de circulaci=C3=B3n como la demanda de din= ero son, asumiendo que las variables econ=C3=B3micas est=C3=A1n en sus r= elaciones o =E2=80=9Cniveles naturales=E2=80=9D, estables en el corto pl= azo.,[78] reflejando preferencias individuales o institu= cionales acerca de cuanto ahorrar o consumir. Variaciones en la cantidad= de circulante llevan entonces a tentativas, por parte de empresas e ind= ividuos, a mantener esas preferencias, por ejemplo, librandose de exceso= s de dinero (lo que significa un aumento en la demanda). Pero, crucialme= nte, una sociedad no puede, en conjunto, librarse de tal exceso monetari= o, especialmente si la sociedad esta a sus niveles naturales de producci= =C3=B3n y empleo. Consecuentemente, los precios aumentaran. Eventualment= e se llegar=C3=A1 a un nuevo punto de equilibrio, pero ese punto ser=C3=A1= a los nuevos precios. Faltas de circulante dar=C3=A1n origen al proceso= opuesto.

Famosamente Friedman ejemplific=C3=B3 lo anterior en su monumental =E2= =80=9CA monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960=E2=80=9D. En es= a obra Friedman argumenta que la causa principal de la Gran Crisis fue l= a restricci=C3=B3n que las autoridades monetarias de EEUU habr=C3=ADan i= mpuesto en 1930 siguiendo un periodo relativamente prolongado de pol=C3=AD= ticas monetarias expansionistas.[7= 9]

Eso dio origen a la percepci=C3=B3n que la crisis se podr=C3=ADa habe= r evitado si el banco central de EEUU - la Reserva Federal= (FED)- hubiera expandido la cantidad de circulante, dado que el dinero = funciona como un multiplicador monetario[80] Fri= edman argument=C3=B3, por ejemplo en una entrevista con Peter Jaworski, = que "aunque el FED no provoc=C3=B3 la crisis de 1929, s=C3=AD la empeor=C3= =B3 al reducir la oferta monetaria en un tiempo en el cual se necesitaba= m=C3=A1s liquidez" (lo que ha llegado a ser la base te=C3=B3rica m=C3=A1= s general para "el est=C3=ADmulo monetario" tal como se ha implementado<= sup id=3D"cite_ref-81" class=3D"reference">[81] ). Paul Krugman comenta al respecto: =E2=80=9CUn tem= a central de la Teor=C3=ADa General de Keynes fue la impotencia de la pol=C3=ADtica monetaria en c= ondiciones del tipo de la depresi=C3=B3n. Pero Milton Friedman y Anna Sh= wartz, en su magistral historia monetaria de los EEUU, proponen que el B= anco Federal podr=C3=ADa haber prevenido la Gran Depresi=C3=B3n -una pro= puesta que m=C3=A1s tarde, en escritos populares, incluyendo los de Frie= dman mismo, se transmuto en la propuesta que el Banco Federal caus=C3=B3= la depresi=C3=B3n. Ahora, lo que el Banco realmente controlaba era la <= a href=3D"/wiki/Base_monetaria" title=3D"Base monetaria">base monetaria<= /a> -circulante m=C3=A1s reservas bancarias. Como la figura muestra, esa= base se expandi=C3=B3 en la realidad durante la gran depresi=C3=B3n, po= r lo cual es dif=C3=ADcil hacer el caso que la Reserva caus=C3=B3 la dep= resi=C3=B3n. Pero se puede argumentar que la depresi=C3=B3n podr=C3=ADa = haber sido prevenida si el Banco Federal hubiera hecho m=C3=A1s -si hubi= era expandido la base monetaria m=C3=A1s r=C3=A1pidamente y hubiera hech= o m=C3=A1s para rescatar los bancos en problemas." y "=E2=80=9CAs=C3=AD,= aqu=C3=AD estamos (2008), mirando una crisis reminescente de la de los = 30. Y esta vez el Banco Federal ha sido espectacularmente agresivo acerc= a de aumentar la base monetaria.. y adivinen que pasa? no parece estar f= uncionando".[82]

Friedman continu=C3=B3 a tratar de dilucidar el papel que fuerzas tan= to econ=C3=B3micas como monetarias juegan en la econom=C3=ADa en general= y en el empleo en particular. Friedman sugiere que el equilibrio econ=C3= =B3mico no implica necesariamente estabilidad de precios, como concepcio= nes anteriores asum=C3=ADan, sino m=C3=A1s bien que la estabil= idad econ=C3=B3mica depende de variaciones anticipadas que permiten = mantener =E2=80=9Crelaciones naturales=E2=80=9D entre las variables. Por= ejemplo, el nivel natural de desempleo (NAIRU) es aquel en el cual la inflaci=C3=B3n observada es ig= ual a la esperada.[83]

Consecuentemente, Friedman propone el abandono de las pol=C3=ADticas = monetarias y su reemplazo con la regla monetaria: El estado debe = aumentar la cantidad de circulante a una taza anual regular y estable, q= ue Friedman propone es entre 3% y 5%[84] (pero que gener= almente se interpreta como correspondiendo a la tasa de crecim= iento econ=C3=B3mico) (n=C3=B3tese que para Friedman lo fundamental = es que esa tasa sea estable y predecible por el p=C3=BAblico - ver op. c= it) Dado que esa tasa de crecimiento no es absolutamente predecible, y d= ado que el aumento del circulante si lo es, eso podr=C3=ADa dar origen a= un cierto nivel de inflaci=C3=B3n, pero, en la medida que esa inflaci=C3= =B3n es anticipada, el resultado no ser=C3=A1 problem=C3=A1tico. La econ= om=C3=ADa se mantendr=C3=A1 =E2=80=9Cestable=E2=80=9D.[85] En todo caso, la regla monetaria no proh=C3=ADbe el uso de las tasas = de inter=C3=A9s a fin de controlar las variaciones de demanda dentro de = los l=C3=ADmites que la regla permite.[86]

Aporte de Taylor= [edit= ar]

A partir de lo anterior se ha observado un inter=C3=A9s en el desarro= llo de las posibles reglas monetarias. De particular inter=C3=A9s en est= a =C3=A1rea es el aporte de John B. Taylor.

En 1977, Taylor y Edmund Phelps mostraron[87] que la pol=C3=ADtica monetaria es =C3=BAtil para estabilizar la econo= m=C3=ADa si los salarios son pegajosos,[88] inclu= so cuando todos los trabajadores y las empresas tienen expectativas racionales. Esto demostr=C3=B3= que algunas de las sugerencias de la econom= =C3=ADa keynesiana se mantienen bajo la asunciones de las expectativ= as racionales. Esto es importante porque Thomas Sargent y Neil = Wallace hab=C3=ADan argumentado que las expectativas racionales hace= n la pol=C3=ADtica macroecon=C3=B3mica in=C3=BAtil para lograr estabilid= ad econ=C3=B3mica. Los resultados de Taylor y Phelps mostraron que la as= unci=C3=B3n de Sargent y Wallace no era fundamentalmente las expectativa= s racionales, sino los precios perfectamente flexibles.[89] Consecuentemente el Modelo de superposion temporal de los contratos = salariales de Taylor se convirti=C3=B3 en uno de los pilares de la Nueva Econom=C3=ADa Keynesiana.

Taylor avanz=C3=B3 a explorar qu=C3=A9 tipo de reglas de pol=C3=ADtic= a monetaria es m=C3=A1s efectiva para reducir el coste al Bienestar social de = los ciclos econ=C3=B3micos: deber=C3=ADan los bancos centrales tratar de= controlar la oferta monetaria, el nivel de precios, o la tasa de inter=C3= =A9s, y en relaci=C3=B3n a cuales cambios deber=C3=ADan reaccionar estos= instrumentos: cambios en la producci=C3=B3n, el desempleo, precios de l= os activos, o las tasas de inflaci=C3=B3n?. Taylor demostr=C3=B3 que hab= =C3=ADa un compromiso =E2=80=94m=C3=A1s tarde llamado Curva de Taylor<= /a>=E2=80=94 entre la volatilidad de la inflaci=C3=B3n y la de la produc= ci=C3=B3n.[90] [91= ] [92]= Taylor propuso[93] una pol=C3=ADtica que el considera s= imple y efectiva: los bancos centrales deber=C3=ADan manipular las tasas= de inter=C3=A9s de corto plazo, elevando las tasas a fin de enfriar la = econom=C3=ADa cuando la inflaci=C3=B3n o el crecimiento del producto se = vuelve excesivo, y la reduciendo esas tasas cuando una de esas medidas c= ae demasiado bajo. Esto ha llegado a ser conocido como la Regla de Ta= ylor.

Una disposici=C3=B3n clave de la regla de Taylor =E2=80=94 a veces llamado el= Principio de Taylor=E2=80=94 es que la tasa de inter=C3=A9s nomi= nal debe reaccionar exageradamente, por ejemplo, aumentando m=C3=A1s de = un punto porcentual cada aumento de un uno por ciento de la inflaci=C3=B3= n.= [94] (y viceversa, disminuyendo en m=C3=A1s de un punt= o por cada punto que los precios o la producci=C3=B3n decae).

La regla de Taylor se ha transformado en una posici=C3=B3n generalmen= te aceptada como base para las decisiones monetarias;[95] constituyendo uno de los principales aspectos a considerar en discusio= nes acerca de pol=C3=ADticas monetarias tanto en EEUU[96] como en la Uni=C3=B3n Europea.[9= 7]

Citas y refer= encias[editar]
  1. =E2=86=91 Stanley L Br= ue y Randy R Grant; (2008): Historia del pensamiento econ=C3=B3mico (Spa= nish Edition). Editorial: Cengage Learning, M=C3=A9xico
  2. =E2=86=91 Por ejemplo:= William Anglas: ESCUELAS DE PENSAMIENTO MONETARISTAS Y KEYNESIANOS; Hen= ry Hazlitt: =C2=BFEn d=C3= =B3nde se equivocan los monetaristas?
  3. =E2=86=91 por ejemplo:= PATRICIO MELLER (1986): KEYNESIANISMO Y MONETARISMO: DISCREPANCIAS METODOL=C3=93GICAS
  4. =E2=86=91 Por ejemplo = Milton Friedman sugiere =E2=80=94 en "Studies in the Quantity Theory of = Money} (1956) =E2=80=94 que los efectos de aumento del circulante en el = corto plazo son aumentar empleo y producci=C3=B3n, pero en el largo plaz= o los efectos de tal incremento monetario solo son inflaci=C3=B3n. Ver t= ambi=C3=A9n Universidad de Alcal=C3=A1 (UAH): Modelo OA-DA II Shocks y Mecanis= mos de Propagacion. A: Los efectos de una expansi=C3=B3n monetaria] (doc= umento se puede bajar desde www2.uah.es/econ/MacroII/Presentaciones/OADA= _II.ppt
  5. =E2=86=91 Phillip Cagan, 1987. "Monetarism," The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economic= s, v. 3, Reprinted in John Eatwell et al. (1989), Money: The = New Palgrave, pp. 195-205 & 492-497
  6. =E2=86=91 Stanley L Br= ue y Randy R Grant; (2008): Historia del pensamiento econ=C3=B3mico (Spa= nish Edition). Editorial: Cengage Learning, M=C3=A9xico
  7. =E2=86=91 James Tobin,= por ejemplo, lleg=C3=B3 a llamar a los nuevos cl=C3=A1sicos =E2=80=9Cmo= netaristas modelo 2=E2=80=9D (ver =E2=80=9CThe Monetarist Counter-Revolu= tion Today -an Appraisal=E2=80=9D en Econ. Journal, Mar 1981, 91 (361), = pp 29-42). Sin embargo es necesario notar que hay diferencias entre los = monetaristas y los nuevos cl=C3=A1sicos (ver, por ejemplo: Kevin D. Hoov= er - 1984 Two Types of Monetarism.) consecuent= emente es m=C3=A1s apropiado sugerir que el nuevo clasicismo evoluciono = a partir o sobre la base del monetarismo (ver por ejemplo Roger A. McCai= n (2000): From Mon= etarism New Classical Economics.
  8. =E2=86=91 A Leijonhufv= ud (2009): Wicksell,= Hayek, Keynes, Friedman: Whom Should We Follow?
  9. =E2=86=91 Mill, John S= tuart; Principles of Political Economy (1848). part II CHAPTER VI= II: Of the Value of Money, as Dependent on Demand and Supply
  10. =
  11. =E2=86=91 The Bernar= d Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis: "La bestia que John Stua= rt Mill liber=C3=B3 de la jaula, la "teor=C3=ADa cuantitativa pura" de H= ume, ser=C3=ADa recogida por primera vez por Simon Newcomb (1885) y lueg= o, m=C3=A1s famosamente, por Irving Fisher en su "Poder adquisitivo del = dinero" (1911 ). La teor=C3=ADa puede ser resumida sucintamente referien= donos a la famosa "ecuaci=C3=B3n de intercambio" introducida por estos d= os economistas." en The Quantit= y Theory of Money
  12. =E2=86=91 Stuart Mil= l: =E2=80=9CNo es, sin embargo, del =C3=BAltimo o del promedio, sino de = los precios inmediatos y temporales, de los que ahora nos ocupamos. Esos= , como hemos visto, pueden diferir en gran medida de la norma del costo = de producci=C3=B3n. Entre otras causas de fluctuaci=C3=B3n, una que hemo= s encontrado es la cantidad de dinero en circulaci=C3=B3n. Mientras otra= s cosas sean las mismas, un aumento del dinero en circulaci=C3=B3n aumen= ta los precios, una disminuci=C3=B3n los disminuye. Si se ofrece m=C3=A1= s dinero para circulaci=C3=B3n que la cantidad que puede circular en rel= aci=C3=B3n confortable a su costo de producci=C3=B3n, el valor del diner= o, por la duraci=C3=B3n del exceso, se mantendr=C3=A1 por debajo del niv= el de costo de producci=C3=B3n y los precios en general ser=C3=A1n soste= nidos sobre de la tasa natural.=E2=80=9D en "Principles of Political Eco= nomy with some of their Applications to Social Philosophy" Book III, Chapter XII Influence of Credit o= n Prices p=C3=A1rrafo 2 (en ingl=C3=A9s en el original)
  13. =E2=86=91 Stuart Mil= l: "Principles of Political Economy with some of their Applications to S= ocial Philosophy" Book III, Ch= apter XII Influence of Credit on Prices p=C3=A1rrafos 3 y 27 (en ing= l=C3=A9s en el original)
  14. =E2=86=91 Para una i= ntroducci=C3=B3n a todo esto, ver C= ausas en Imperialismo] y Pugnas Imperialistas. Siglo XIX. Para empezar = a profundizar: Jude Wanniski Una historia econ=C3= =B3mica del Siglo XX y ERIC HOBSBAWM: =E2= =80=9CEL GRAN BOOM=E2=80=9D
  15. =E2=86=91 D Laidler = When Giants Walked the Earth
  16. =E2=86=91 Para una i= ntroducci=C3=B3n a este aspecto, ver Fernando Ossa El Sistema Monetario Internacional: Antecedentes y Perspectivas=
  17. =E2=86=91 P. H. Wick= steed (1910): Common Sense of Political= Economy ( II.7.15)
  18. =E2=86=91 por ejempl= o: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston:"HISTOR= Y AT YOUR FINGERTIPS" AND "SPIRIT OF THE NATION"
  19. =E2=86=91 Para todo = esto ver, por ejemplo: AXEL LEIJONHUFVUD (1997): The Wicksellian Heritage
  20. =E2=86=91 De acuerdo= a la teor=C3=ADa cuantitativa los precios son estrictamente proporciona= les a la cantidad monetaria. Dado que el circulante estaba aumentado per= o los precios por los menos se manten=C3=ADan =E2=80=94y de hecho a menu= do disminu=C3=ADan, debido a la competencia, se puede dudar de la teor=C3= =ADa. La percepci=C3=B3n monetarista es que esa teor=C3=ADa es correcta = en el largo plazo y en ciertas circunstancias, pero que "no debe ser tom= ada literalmente" -=E2=80=94ver Chapter 33 Summary
  21. =E2=86=91 K. Wicksel= l: "Geldzins und G=C3=BCterpreise", traducido como "La Tasa de Inter=C3=A9= s y el Nivel de los Precios" - Varias ediciones castellanas, por ejemplo= I.S.B.N: 84-88203-07-1 y ISBN: 978-84-88203-07-6
  22. =E2=86=91 Justo Sote= lo Navalpotro (2003): Teor=C3=ADas y modelos macroecon=C3=B3micos p 88 = "Or=C3=ADgenes del monetarismo, punto 2.2
  23. =E2=86=91 K. Wicksel= l (op. cit): "Me gustar=C3=ADa entonces, humildemente, llamar atenci=C3=B3= n al hecho que la primera obligaci=C3=B3n de los bancos no es ganar much= o dinero sino proveer al p=C3=BAblico con un medio de cambio =E2=80=94 y= proveer este medio en la medida adecuada, de apuntar a la estabilidad d= e precios. En todo caso sus obligaciones en relaci=C3=B3n a la sociedad = son enormemente mas importantes que sus obligaciones privadas y, si ello= s al fin y al cabo son incapaces de descargar esas obligaciones sociales= a lo largo de la linea de la empresa privada =E2=80=94 lo que dudo=E2=80= =94 (esas obligaciones) proveer=C3=ADan una actividad digna para el Esta= do"
  24. =E2=86=91 Mar=C3=ADa= Josefina Le=C3=B3n L: An=C3=A1lisis cr=C3=AD= tico del planteamiento del problema de la neutralidad: Wicksell, Hayek y= Patinkin
  25. =E2=86=91 Los dos tipo= s de inter=C3=A9s y el ciclo econ=C3=B3mico
  26. =E2=86=91 A. Leijonh= ufvud (2007) observa: "Esto es lo que se supone que las metas de inflaci= =C3=B3n hagan por nosotros.... Es interesante reflejar que esto es una t= area que parece por lejos m=C3=A1s dif=C3=ADcil en teor=C3=ADa que lo qu= e parece haber sido en la pr=C3=A1ctica. Hasta ahora." en Tan lejos de Ricardo,Tan cerca de Wicksell
  27. =E2=86=91 Lars Jonun= g (2003): National or international inflation targ= eting? The Wicksellian dilemma of Sweden and the United Kingdom
  28. =E2=86=91 Axel Leijo= nhufvud (1997: The Wick= sellian Heritage
  29. =E2=86=91 La frase "= dinero creado de la nada" fue utilizada por primera vez por Joseph A= lois Schumpeter: "Este m=C3=A9todo de obtener dinero es la creaci=C3= =B3n de poder de compra por los bancos [=E2=80=A6] Se trata siempre no d= e transformar el poder de compra que exista ya en posesi=C3=B3n de algun= o, sino de la creaci=C3=B3n, de la nada, de nuevo poder de compra =E2=80= =93de la nada, aun si el contrato de cr=C3=A9dito por el cual se crea el= nuevo poder adquisitivo, est=C3=A1 sostenido por valores que no son a s= u vez medios circulantes=E2=80=93 que se a=C3=B1ade a la circulaci=C3=B3= n existente". (ver: Joseph A Schumpeter:. Teor=C3=ADa del desenvolvimien= to econ=C3=B3mico (M=C3=A9xico DF: Fondo de Cultura Econ=C3=B3mica.- 196= 7). Sin embargo, el basa su afirmacion en una percepcion anterior de Adam Smith: "Existen = diferentes clases de papel moneda, pero los billetes en circulaci=C3=B3n= de los bancos y banqueros son los m=C3=A1s conocidos y, por otra parte,= los que mejor se acomodan a nuestro prop=C3=B3sito. Tan pronto como los= habitantes de un pa=C3=ADs llegan a depositar la con=EF=AC=81anza neces= aria en el patrimonio, la probidad y la conducta de un banquero particul= ar, hasta el punto de creer que siempre estar=C3=A1 dispuesto a pagar a = la vista cualquier pagar=C3=A9 suyo que le sea presentado, no importa en= qu=C3=A9 momento, esos efectos circular=C3=A1n lo mismo que si fueran m= onedas de oro y plata, en virtud de la con=EF=AC=81anza que inspiran (ve= r A. Smith: Investigaci=C3=B3n sobre la naturaleza y causas de la riquez= a de las naciones (M=C3=A9xico DF: Fondo de Cultura Econ=C3=B3mica.- p 2= 56).
  30. =E2=86=91 Jeffery D.= Amato (2004): The Role of the Natural Rate of Interes= t in Monetary Policy
  31. =E2=86=91 A Leijonhu= fvud (1979): The Wicksell Connection: Vari= ations on a Theme
  32. =E2=86=91 Richard M.= Ebeling (1999) La teor=C3=ADa austriaca del ciclo e= con=C3=B3mico
  33. =E2=86=91 Alexander = Tob=C3=B3n (2008): Intereses y precios: Keynes en la tradici=C3=B3n cuantitativa de Wickse= ll
  34. =E2=86=91 A Leijonhu= fvud (1979): "La teor=C3=ADa del mecanismo de tipos de inter=C3=A9s es e= l centro de la confusi=C3=B3n en la macroeconom=C3=ADa moderna... Este d= ocumento trata de seguir el desarrollo de esa teor=C3=ADa, esto va al ce= ntro de la disputa entre monetaristas y el 'Debate de los dos Cambridge"= en The Wicksell Connection: Variations on= a Theme
  35. =E2=86=91 DAVID LAID= LER: TRES VARIACIONES DEL MODELO= DE DOBLE TASA DE INTERES
  36. =E2=86=91 A Leijonhu= fvud (1979): The Wicksell Connection: Vari= ations on a Theme
  37. =E2=86=91 Kevin D. H= oover - 1984 Two Types of Monetarism.
  38. =E2=86=91 Ver, por e= jemplo, Fernando M=C3=A9ndez I. (1993): EL =E2=80=9CENSAYO SOBRE EL DINERO=E2=80=9D Y =E2=80=9C= UNA NOTA MATEM=C3=81TICA ACERCA DEL VALOR DEL DINERO=E2=80=9D DE ALFRED = MARSHALL: UN ESTUDIO PRELIMINAR
  39. =E2=86=91 Pensamiento = econ=C3=B3mico de Ralph G. Hawtrey
  40. =E2=86=91 Ralph G. Hawtrey,1879-1971.
  41. =E2=86=91 E.G. Davis= (1980: The Correspondence between R.G. Hawtrey and J.M. Ke= ynes on the Treatise: The Genesis of Output Adjustment Models=
  42. =E2=86=91 Para una i= ntroducci=C3=B3n a todo esto, ver: WHAT IS MONETARY P= OLICY?. Para comenzar a profundizar, ver: Ellis Davidson: How to Describe an Active Mo= netary Policy
  43. =E2=86=91 Warren J. = Samuels, Jeff Biddle, John Bryan Davis: A companion to the history of economic thought
  44. =E2=86=91 Milton Fri= edman, Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History, Houghton Mif= flin Harcourt (1994) p. 37. ISBN 0-15-661930-X
  45. =E2=86=91 I Fisher: = The Theory of interest; traducido como "LA TEOR=C3=8DA DEL INTER=C3=89S"= - Uni=C3=B3n Editorial, Madrid - ISBN: 978-84-88203-06-9
  46. =E2=86=91 Richard Ro= ca La Teor=C3=ADa Cuantitativa Antigua
  47. =E2=86=91 Fernando S= ep=C3=BAlveda P: Determinaci=C3=B3n = del Nivel de Precios a Trav=C3=A9s de las Curvas
  48. =E2=86=91 I. Fisher:= Stabilizing the Dollar - Macmillan, 1920
  49. =E2=86=91 I Fisher: = =E2=80=9CThe Rate of Interest=E2=80=9D (1906)
  50. =E2=86=91 I. Fisher:= =E2=80=9CThe Purchasing Power of Money=E2=80=9D (1911) y =E2=80=9CStabi= lizing de Dollar=E2=80=9D (1920)
  51. =E2=86=91 I Fisher: = =E2=80=9CThe Theory of Inter=C3=A9s=E2=80=9D (1930)
  52. =E2=86=91 I Fisher: = =E2=80=9C100 Money=E2=80=9D (1936)
  53. =E2=86=91 I Fisher: = =E2=80=9C100 Money=E2=80=9D (1936)
  54. =E2=86=91 Fisher fam= osamente predijo, poco antes del Crac del 29 que: "Los precios de las acciones han alcan= zado lo que parece ser una meseta alta permanente." The Bright Side of Bubbles - CFO.com. Fisher perdi=C3=B3 s= u fortuna en esa crisis, y sus aportes fueron desacreditados
  55. =
  56. =E2=86=91 Thomas F. = Cargill, 1981. "A Tribute to Clark Warburton, 1896-1979: Note," Journ= al of Money, Credit and Banking, 13(1), p. 89.
  57. =E2=86=91 A Lerner (= 1943): Lerner, Abba: Func= tional Finance and the Federal Debt
  58. =E2=86=91 Gabriel Le= andro: "La pol=C3=ADtica econ=C3=B3mica, entonces, consiste en el que el= Gobierno emplea sus poderes leg=C3=ADtimos manipulando diversos instrum= entos, con el fin de alcanzar onjetivos socio-econ=C3=B3micos previament= e establecidos. La pol=C3=ADtica econ=C3=B3mica tiene distintos objetivo= s, dentro de los cuales se puede decir que los principales son: 1.- Crec= imiento y desarrollo econ=C3=B3mico, que consiste b=C3=A1sicamente en lo= grar tasas de crecimiento de la producci=C3=B3n satisfactorias, incluyen= do cambios estructurales continuos en el tejido productivo. 2.- Pleno em= pleo, es decir garantizar la creaci=C3=B3n neta de puestos de trabajo pa= ra proporcionar a un nivel de vida razonable para todos los miembros cap= acitados de la fuerza laboral disponible, reducir y prevenir el desemple= o c=C3=ADclico a corto plazo, eliminar el desempleo estructural y otras = formas de desempleo persistente a largo plazo.3.- Estabilidad de precios= , la cual consiste en el mantenimiento del nivel general de precios, o u= na tasa de inflaci=C3=B3n reducida. 4.- Distribuci=C3=B3n de la renta y = la riqueza, o sea una reducci=C3=B3n progresiva de las diferencias entre= los niveles de ingresos personales, la concentraci=C3=B3n de la riqueza= y la provisi=C3=B3n de bienes p=C3=BAblicos. 5.- Equilibrio de la balan= za de pagos, se pretende reducir el d=C3=A9ficit exterior a medio plazo,= mantener un nivel de reservas de divisas y la solvencia frente al exter= ior.-- Para lograr ese objetivo el Estado dispone de varios instrumentos= ." en Papel del gobierno en la econom= =C3=ADa: La pol=C3=ADtica econ=C3=B3mica
  59. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o: Tibor Scitovsky (1984): Lerner's Contribution to Eco= nomics
  60. =E2=86=91 A Lerner: = The Economics of Employment=E2=80=9D - New York, McGraw Hill, 1951, p 13= 3
  61. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o, L. Randall Wray (2002) escribe con relaci=C3=B3n al articulo de Milto= n Friedman, "A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability" (19= 48): =E2=80=9CNote que Friedman habr=C3=ADa tenido deficits gubernamenta= les y, consecuentemente, emisiones monetarias siempre que la econom=C3=AD= a estuviera operando por debajo del pleno empleo. De nuevo, ese es el pu= nto de vista de la finanza funcional de Abba Lerner, y supongo que fue a= doptada por casi todos despu=C3=A9s de la Segunda Guerra Mundial=E2=80=9D= en A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic S= tability
  62. =E2=86=91 por ejempl= o: Federal Reserva Bank of New York (Marzo 2008): Statement Regarding System Open Market Account Act= ivity
  63. =E2=86=91 Econbrowse= r: Projected size of the de= ficit
  64. =E2=86=91 BNET: The= federal deficit and the national debt: why they matter more than we thi= nk
  65. =E2=86=91 Business M= irror: De= ficit that's 3.6% of GDP
  66. =E2=86=91 FRANCISCO = ROSENDE (2003): =C2=BFEL FIN DEL MONETARISMO?
  67. =E2=86=91 Los Estado= s Unidos han tenido deuda p=C3=BAblica desde su creaci=C3=B3n. Las deuda= s aparecieron durante la Guerra de la Independencia Estadounidense y ya en los = primeros Art=C3=ADculos de la Confederaci=C3=B3n aparecen informes del r= esultado total de la deuda ($75,463,476.52 on January 1, 1791). T= odos los presidentes desde Harry Truman han aumentado la cantida= d total de la deuda estadounidense. El techo de deuda ha sido incrementa= do 74 veces desde marzo de 1962, incluyendo 18 veces desde Ronald Reagan, 8 veces co= n Bill Clinton= , 7 veces con = George W. Bush y 3 veces (hasta agosto de 2011) con Barack Obama. ver: Jeanne Saha= di (2011): Debt ceiling FAQs: What you need to know|editorial y Debt Ceiling Facts
  68. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o: Bernanke estudiar=C3=A1 la tercera = ronda de est=C3=ADmulos monetarios en septiembre
  69. =E2=86=91 El asunto = es complejo, pero el punto central es que la propuesta de Lerner es acer= ca del financiamiento de instrumentos fiscales, no la acci=C3=B3n o deud= a privada (que es lo que muchos sugieren ha sucedido con los dineros pro= ducto del est=C3=ADmulo). Consecuentemente, cuando el =E2=80=9Cestimulo=E2= =80=9D fue propuesto por primera vez (en 2003, durante el gobierno de Bu= sh hijo), los economistas keynesianos (quienes est=C3=A1n cerca de las p= osiciones de Lerner) se opusieron: =E2=80=9COtros prominentes economista= s keynesianos =E2=80=93entre ellos diez premios Nobel- se opusieron al p= rograma de est=C3=ADmulo fiscal del presidente Bush del 2003, por no ser= la respuesta a los problemas de empleo y crecimiento a corto plazo, y e= n cambio empeorara las perspectivas del presupuesto a largo plazo, incre= mentando los d=C3=A9ficit cr=C3=B3nicos, que reducir=C3=A1 la capacidad = de financiar la seguridad social y la inversi=C3=B3n; adem=C3=A1s, alega= n que la reducci=C3=B3n de impuestos provocar=C3=A1 mayor desigualdad y,= en cambio, proponen un plan de est=C3=ADmulo de la demanda que realment= e provoque el crecimiento y el empleo en el corto plazo sin incrementar = el problema del d=C3=A9ficit a largo plazo.=E2=80=9D ( Jos=C3=A9 de Jes=C3= =BAs Rodr=C3=ADguez Vargas (2004) en La Nueva Fase d= e Desarrollo Econ=C3=B3mico y Social del Capitalismo Mundial). Nouriel Roubini (2011) va tan lejos como culpar ese plan de la crisis del 2008: =E2=80= =9CObviamente, es la culpa de George Bush. Cuando Obama asumi=C3=B3 el p= oder, hered=C3=B3 un d=C3=A9ficit presupuestario de US$1,2 billones (mil= lones de millones)... y cuando Bush lleg=C3=B3 al poder, hab=C3=ADa un s= uper=C3=A1vit de US$300.000 millones. =C2=BFC=C3=B3mo pasamos de un supe= r=C3=A1vit de US$300.000 millones a un d=C3=A9ficit de US$1,2 billones, = un cambio de US$1,5 billones en nuestra condici=C3=B3n fiscal? Decidimos= recortar los impuestos pero no pudimos hacerlo en 2001-2003, gastamos U= S$2 billones en dos guerras que no se pod=C3=ADan ganar, duplicamos el g= asto discrecional... a=C3=B1adimos prestaciones sociales como beneficios= de Medicare para comprar medicamentos y luego tuvimos un enfoque laisse= z-faire para la supervisi=C3=B3n de la regulaci=C3=B3n financiera, causa= mos la mayor crisis financiera de la historia, lo que implic=C3=B3 un en= orme incremento del d=C3=A9ficit porque ten=C3=ADamos el d=C3=A9ficit de= la recesi=C3=B3n y ten=C3=ADamos el costo fiscal de rescatar a las inst= ituciones financieras. Por lo tanto, tuvimos cinco factores que llevaron= a que pas=C3=A1ramos de un enorme super=C3=A1vit a un enorme d=C3=A9fic= it. Y =C3=A9l hered=C3=B3 dos guerras en el exterior y la peor crisis fi= nanciera y econ=C3=B3mica, y ahora le echan la culpa a =C3=A9l.=E2=80=9D= (en Entrevista con Nouriel Roubini: Marx, Bush y otra re= cesi=C3=B3n
  70. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o: Menos pr=C3=A9stamos, m=C3= =A1s comisiones
  71. =E2=86=91 por ejempl= o: U de Barcelona: =E2=80=9CLa teor=C3=ADa monetaria moderna: De Keynes = a la d=C3=A9cada de los 80=E2=80=9D ISBN-10: 8434460653 - ISBN-13: 978-8= 434460652.- Argando=C3=B1a, Antonio; La Teor=C3=ADa Monetaria Moderna; E= dit. Ariel; Espa=C3=B1a; 1981
  72. =E2=86=91 Para una i= ntroducci=C3=B3n a este aspecto en castellano, ver: Gir=C3=B3n, Alicia. = Poder y moneda: d= iscusi=C3=B3n inconclusa. En publicaci=C3=B3n: Confrontaciones monet= arias: marxistas y post-keynesianos en Am=C3=A9rica Latina Gir=C3=B3n, A= licia CLACSO, Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales, Ciudad de Bu= enos Aires, Argentina. 2006. ISBN: 987-1183-51-8.- Para empezar a profun= dizar, L.P. Rochon y M. Vernengo: El Malestar del Chartalismo
  73. =E2=86=91 Understanding The Modern Monetary S= ystem
  74. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o: Nobel Prize Org (Press release, 14 Oct 1976): THIS YEAR's ECONOMICS PRIZE TO AN AMERICAN<= /a>
  75. =E2=86=91 Richard Ro= ca El Monetarismo Moderno
  76. =E2=86=91 Por ejempl= o JJR Vargas: FRIEDMAN: NUEVA FORMULACI=C3=93N DE LA= TEOR=C3=8DA CUANTITATIVA
  77. =E2=86=91 John Hawki= ns (Right Wing News): An Interview With= Milton Friedman
  78. =E2=86=91 Gabriel Le= andro: LA INFLACI=C3=93N (punto 5: Inflac= i=C3=B3n causada por el exceso de dinero en circulaci=C3=B3n)
  79. =E2=86=91 Milton Fri= edman (1997): Rx for Japan: B= ack to the Future originalmente en el Wall Street Journal, p. A22, D= ecember 17, 1997.
  80. =E2=86=91 Friedman p= ostula que ese corto plazo es, aproximadamente, seis meses. Ver, por eje= mplo: Virginia Postrel (2003) With = Milton Friedman's ideas now accepted by theorists and policy makers, it'= s easy to forget how revolutionary they were. Sin embargo, posterior= mente modifico esas posici=C3=B3n a 12 e incluso 24 meses. Ver Michael E= mmett Brady (1968): A Note on Milton Friedman's Applica= tion of His "Methodology of Positive Economics"
  81. =E2=86=91 Milton Fri= edman, Anna Jacobson Schwartz (1971): A monetary history of the = United States, 1867-1960 cap 7
  82. =E2=86=91 M. Friedma= n y D. Meiselman: =E2=80=9CThe Relative Stability of Monetary Velocity a= nd the Investment Multiplier=E2=80=9D y M Friedman y AJ Schwartz: =E2=80= =9CA Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960=E2=80=9D.-
  83. =E2=86=91 el argumen= to central es relativamente simple desde el punto de vista de Friedman: = la cantidad de circulante es responsable del nivel de precios. La Gran R= ecesi=C3=B3n se caracteriz=C3=B3 por una deflaci=C3=B3n extrema. La solu= ci=C3=B3n, obvia para quien cree que la inflaci=C3=B3n y (presumiblement= e) la deflaci=C3=B3n son siempre un fen=C3=B3meno monetario, es aumentar= el circulante: la consecuente =E2=80=9Cinflaci=C3=B3n=E2=80=9D contrarr= estara la ca=C3=ADda en precios
  84. =E2=86=91 Paul Krugm= an: =E2=80=9CThe Conscience of a Liberal=E2=80=9D
  85. =E2=86=91 Esta es un= =C3=A1rea compleja. Algunos consideran que Friedman asume que el sistem= a econ=C3=B3mico tiende naturalmente a un equilibrio general, basados pr= incipalmente en su aserci=C3=B3n que la tasa natural de desempleo es aqu= ella que =E2=80=9Cseria producida por el sistema de ecuaciones de la teo= r=C3=ADa del equilibrio general de Walras=E2=80=9D (en The Role of Monet= ary Policy] (1968) p 8). Sin embargo no todos est=C3=A1n de acuerdo, apu= ntando a la frase que sigue a la citada: =E2=80=9Casumiendo que en ellas= estuvieran empotradas las caracter=C3=ADsticas reales de los mercados d= e bienes y de trabajo=E2=80=9D. Para una visi=C3=B3n general de esta =C3= =A1rea, ver: Robert Leeson (2000): Friedman and the Walrasia= n Equations of The Natural-Rate Counter-Revolution. La importancia d= el punto es que la teor=C3=ADa de las relaciones naturales de Friedman p= arece sugerir que si esas relaciones se establecen, el sistema estar=C3=AD= a en equilibrio. En la otra mano, la obra de Friedman en conjunto sugier= e que las relaciones est=C3=A1n en flujo en el mediano y largo plazo. La= s implicaciones para la pol=C3=ADtica econ=C3=B3micas de largo plazo que= siguen de ambas propuestas son diferentes.
  86. =E2=86=91 M. Friedma= n: My choice at the moment would be a legislated rule instructing the mo= netary authority to achieve a specified rate of growth in the stock of m= oney. For this purpose, I would define the stock of money as including c= urrency outside commercial banks plus all deposits of commercial banks. = I would specify that the Reserve System should see to it that the total = stock of money so defined rises month by month, and indeed, so far as po= ssible, day by day, at an annual rate of X per cent, where X is some num= ber between 3 and 5. The precise definition of money adopted and the pre= cise rate of growth chosen make far less difference than the definite ch= oice of a particular definition and a particular rate of growth.=E2=80=9D= en =E2=80=9CDollars And Deficits=E2=80=9D, Prentice Hall, 1968, p. 193.= .
  87. =E2=86=91 Friedman a= rgumenta: =E2=80=9CSeria mejor tener una tasa (de expansi=C3=B3n monetar= ia) fija que en promedio produjera una inflaci=C3=B3n moderada o deflaci= =C3=B3n moderada, siempre que fueran constantes, que sufrir las amplias = y err=C3=A1tica perturbaciones que hemos experimentados=E2=80=9D en The Role of Monet= ary Policy (1968) p 16.
  88. =E2=86=91 William Po= ole (1999): Monetary Po= licy Rules? p 9
  89. =E2=86=91 E Phelps y= J. B. Taylor (1977): =E2=80= =9CStabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations= Journal of Political Economy, 85 (1), February 1977, pp. 163-190. Repri= nted in E.S. Phelps (ed.) Studies in Macroeconomic Theory: Employment an= d Inflation, Academic Press, 1979
  90. =E2=86=91 Se entiend= e por pegosidad', inercia o rigidez el concepto con= trario a Elasticidad (econom=C3=ADa). En otras palabras,= que la variable NO responde inmediatamente a cambios en el mercado
  91. =E2=86=91 Blanchard,= Olivier (2000), Macroeconomics, 2nd ed., Ch. 28, p. 543. Prentic= e Hall, ISBN 0-13-013306-X.
  92. =E2=86=91 Prakash Lo= ungani: En pos de regl= as
  93. =E2=86=91 SATYAJIT C= HATTERJEE: [http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/pub= lications/business-review/2002/q3/brq302sc.pdf The Taylor Curve and = the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff]
  94. =E2=86=91 Bernanke, = Ben (2004), =E2=80= =9CThe Great Moderation=E2=80=9D, Remarks at the meeting of the East= ern Economic Association.
  95. =E2=86=91 J. B. Tayl= or (1993): Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Pract= ice.- Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, North-Holland, 39,= 1993, pp. 195-214
  96. =E2=86=91 T. Davig a= nd E. Leeper (2005) 'Generalizing the Taylor principle', NBER Working Paper 11874.
  97. =E2=86=91 A. Orphani= des (2007), 'Taylor rules= ', Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-18, Federal Reserve = Board.
  98. =E2=86=91 Michael Ku= mhof, Ricardo Nunes, Irina Yakadina (2008): Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance
  99. =E2=86=91 Paul Levin= e y Joseph Pearlman (2008): ROBUST MONETARY = RULES UNDER UNSTRUCTURED AND STRUCTURED MODEL UNCERTAINTY

Enlaces externos= [edi= tar]

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